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Bitcoin was below the 200-day moving average on the US midterm election days in 2014, 2018, and 2022, approximately 35%, 9%, and 22% lower respectively, but this year is different. Currently, Bitcoin's price is about $76,990, 5.2% above the 200-day moving average of around $73,169, indicating a relatively strong long-term trend. The 2026 Bitcoin bear market is shallower and the decline occurred earlier, with the main correction concentrated from January to February this year. Martin Lee, head The pinball machine looks wider, and both balls ended up stuck at the bottom edge. The 02—03 o'clock BTC and ETH also have a similar meaning: they ran further than the previous hour, but with less trading volume, and the close was near the low point.
According to OKX spot, BTC's highest price minus lowest price in this hour expanded from 187.9 to 345.1 USDT, trading volume decreased by about 24%, closing at 77590, only 30.5 above the lowest price. During the session, it even touched 20 points above the four-hour high from 8 PM to midnight last night, but closed back below that high.
ETH's hourly price spread expanded from 7.21 to 11.26, trading volume decreased by about 7%, closing at 2293.20, only 0.39 above the lowest. It passed 2300 during the session but didn't even touch the highest price of that four-hour period last night. Both ended up closing within 10% of their respective hourly range lows.
This time I will first note the closing position. If the next candle can close back in the upper half of this one, this kind of weakness ending near the low point will need to be reassessed. The 03—04 hour candle and the 00—04 four-hour candle have not yet closed. Data as of 03:00 Beijing time on November 4. For informational purposes only, not investment advice.Chairman Selig just dropped a statement on Equity Perpetual Futures
The CFTC has cleared the way for Equity Perps to begin trading on eligible regulated US exchanges, bringing stocks like Apple, Tesla, and NVIDIA into the perp market.
This is bigger than just another product launch. Perps are slowly moving beyond crypto, expanding into traditional financial markets.
For platforms like Lighter, this could be a major long term narrative.
$LIT Mid-term intelligence is here, just finished digging the latest ETF data, let me show you.
$BTC here, a single-day net outflow of 398.6 million, IBIT alone withdrew 405.3 million. Including last Friday, over 1 billion was withdrawn in two days. The price looks like it’s rebounding, but big money is desperately running out, this rally really lacks strength.
$ETH is worse, a single-day outflow of 139.7 million, blood drained for six consecutive days! ETHA almost monopolized the entire day’s selling pressure. Retail investors are waiting for a reversal, institutions are quietly reducing positions, this contrast must be guarded against.
$SOL single-day net flow is zero, accumulated outflow of 71.6 million in the previous five days, can only say the selling pressure has temporarily stopped, it’s too early to talk about inflows.
In summary, institutions are all withdrawing, mainly defensive, don’t hold on stubbornly.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Three coins, one direction. $BTC at 77,230.48 (-1.15% over 24 hours), $ETH at 2,259.38 (-0.41%) and $ZEC at 1,190.65 (-3.49%) all broke lower together, confirming what the bearish camp had argued: a bounce without volume, one that fails to reclaim a moving average, is not a reversal. The market has now validated that framework across three very different profiles. 📉 The technical picture is uniform but not identical. $BTC printed a fresh MACD bearish crossover and slipped beneath its 7-day moviConclusion first: $BTC is forming a minute-level bullish divergence indicating a short-term rebound, but the larger timeframe remains under pressure, representing a pullback window within a downtrend, not a reversal.
Short-term resistance: around 77580–78000
Short-term support: around 75880–74800
If it breaks below 74788, the bullish divergence structure fails, and the long position idea should be abandoned. #تقرير Circle's earnings are on the horizon, can stablecoin growth generate returns? USDC has become the first "significant electronic money token" in the European Union. Among forty-five types of EMT, it is the only one to hold this title, and the cost is that as of November 12, private funds, reserves, liquidity, and recovery plans will be directly managed by the EBA, while France will only handle human resources and outsourcing.BTC Faces Three Major Challenges at November's Start: Elections, Interest Rate Decisions, and Non-Farm Payrolls
At the start of November, BTC faces three hurdles: today's midterm elections, this month's central bank interest rate decisions, and the November 6 non-farm payroll data, followed by the CPI on the 10th. Before these events unfold one by one, large investors generally avoid heavy positions, leading to low volume and choppy trading, with rebounds failing to gain momentum.
Price-wise, BTC is consolidating around 77,000: there is dense resistance near 78,700 above, and support around 76,200 below. In this turbulent period, heavy one-sided bets are the biggest risk.
In terms of timing, the election results will first digest political sentiment, then the non-farm payrolls will reveal employment strength and rate hike expectations, with the CPI providing additional inflation clues afterward. Before the data releases, light or no positions and waiting is safer; enter the market only after a data point is released and the direction becomes clear. Avoid holding positions through news vacuums and enduring volatility.
This is for market observation reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $ETH $BTC $SOL $BTC is repeatedly tugging near $77,000, while $SUI is struggling even to hold $0.85 — the most ironic crack appears here: the ecosystem is expanding, developer tools are updating, network performance is iterating, yet token prices seem unaware. This mismatch of “strong fundamentals, cold capital” is exactly the narrative most worth watching in the current market. First, look at $BTC. The price is around $77,100, fluctuating narrowly within 24 hours, with $77,500 repeatedly gained and lost; whether it can firmly hold this level is the short-term focus. The significance of this level is not the round number itself, but that it tests whether capital is willing to continue buying at the upper edge of the range. If it holds, it means selling pressure has been absorbed; if it repeatedly fails, the consolidation pattern continues. $ETH is around $2,258, clearly following along. Resistance near $2,300 remains, and short-term upward momentum is insufficient. Its problem is not a lack of narrative, but that the narrative currently cannot attract incremental buying — until $BTC gives a direction, $ETH is more likely to continue playing a Beta role rather than leading the rally. What truly deserves separate mention is $SUI. The price is about $0.874, bearing the heaviest pressure among the three. The latest moves are continuous network performance upgrades and ecosystem tool development, consolidating its position as a high-performance public chain, with long-term user migration and developer stories strengthening, but short-term market reaction remains cautious. If $0.85 is lost, short-term pressure may further increase. The key here is not "whether the ecosystem is good," but " $BTC stands around $77,500, with fork lines below and above. First look at the two lines, shout before seeing the result.
Below is $76,518, the low point on October 30. If it closes below, first watch $75,000. Then look at the 200-day moving average around $73,169. Above is $80,400, the upper range from last week. If it closes back above, first see if there is inflow on the ETF that day.
Current price is about $77,533, up about 1.1% in one day. $ETH is about $2,292, up about 1.6% in one day. ETF outflow last Friday was about $643M, the largest single-day outflow since June. Strategy bought 811 coins worth about $65.5M. Average price is about $80,846. ETF and treasury average cost is about $80,000 to $81,500. Current price is below.
Bitfinex says the election is a legislative catalyst in 2027. Not a price event for tomorrow. Just watch if the two lines hold, no direction given.This altcoin has the potential to 10X again
Still not sure which altcoin to bottom-fish? Take a look here
Among the newly launched tokens this round, I’m only following two: one is $牛来 mentioned yesterday, and the other is $PONS
I made a little money on PONS this year, bought in at 0.1 and sold at 0.35, so I have some affection for it and have been keeping an eye on it
But let’s analyze rationally. Personally, I think its advantages are as follows:
① PONS is the token launch platform on the $HOOD Chain. It’s one of the very early launch platforms on Robinhood Chain, so it can capture the traffic and users on Robinhood
② The most impressive is its buyback and burn flywheel: about 80% of protocol fees are used for automatic TWAP buybacks and burning of PONS, creating deflationary pressure. This is why I’ve been saying this round could be a buyback bull run
③ Fixed supply + continuous burn: max supply is 1 billion, with ongoing burns reducing circulating supply, theoretically supporting long-term scarcity
④ Robinhood Chain is still in its early stages and has huge potential to expand its ecosystem in the future. Naturally, memecoins will be part of this, which will heat up the launch platform again
⑤ Max market cap was $270 million, currently $135 million, down 80%
In summary, next we need to watch whether market risk appetite for it will rise, whether on-chain activity can rebound, and pay attention to the price range of 0.1-0.15 There's something I haven't figured out: a company didn't do much else, just raised another round, and its valuation doubled from $8 billion to $16 billion.
Fal raised $1.3 billion in the F round, focusing on AI inference. The list of investors is impressive, led by Bessemer, with Nvidia also pitching in.
Nvidia's chips are selling like hotcakes, yet they insist on investing in inference companies—is it because they're worried about downstream demand? The computing power narrative that $TAO has been pushing for two years probably needs to be brought up again.
With such pricing in the primary market, it's not surprising that $FET moves along for a couple of days. But the money belongs to others; the position is your own.A startup focused on inference has doubled its valuation in a Series F round—Fal just secured $1.3 billion in funding, raising its valuation from $8 billion to $16 billion.
What’s worth watching is not the absolute value, but the timing of its emergence. Over the past year, the market has been discussing "AI capital expenditure peaking," but the primary market’s answer is to keep doubling down, specifically on inference rather than training.
The lead investor is Bessemer, with Nvidia also involved, along with Sound Ventures, HOF Capital, and T. Rowe Price. The fact that both financial investors and industry players are participating indicates the bet is not on a concept, but that inference demand is truly becoming a recurring paid service.
The mechanism is straightforward: once model capabilities converge, whoever offers cheaper and faster inference will capture the call volume. As call volume increases, computing power and electricity become hard constraints, and this chain ultimately transmits to on-chain computing power and decentralized inference targets.
$TAO represents the computing power supply side, while $FET and $NEAR represent the agent and inference call demand side. The narrative hasn’t changed, but this time there is a real cash pricing reference.
One point to consider: the $16 billion valuation is for an inference company that hasn’t gone public yet, while the total market cap of similar on-chain assets is not far from this number. The gap is both an opportunity and a warning—when valuations run ahead and revenues come later, pullbacks often happen faster than the rise.BTC faces a double test this week ⚠️
The crypto market is unsettled this week, with two macro events affecting $BTC nerves: the midterm election results will be revealed in the next two days; at 9:30 PM Friday, the non-farm payroll data will follow 📊. Currently, $BTC is tugging around $77,000, with both bulls and bears cautious to make a move.
Based on the current situation, there is a significant possibility of bearish impact on the crypto space after these two events unfold, and short-term sentiment may be further suppressed 😮💨. Will BTC continue to weaken? When will it recover? It's too early to conclude now. The key depends on whether the election results and employment data exceed expectations, and whether the support near $77,000 holds 🔍.
If the negative factors are realized but selling pressure diminishes, a recovery window may open; otherwise, weak consolidation may prolong. In short: wait for the events to unfold, then observe the capital reaction; don't rush to bottom-fish or blindly short 📌. (The above is market observation only and does not constitute investment advice)$BTC chip concentration indicator continued to decline today, recording 13.03% (yesterday 13.53%)
After a weak rebound yesterday, BTC fell back below 77000 today, far from the high chip concentration area near 81000
However, 13.03% is still very high, and the potential volatility risk this week remains significantBitcoin has really been worrying these past couple of days! $BTC
A few days ago, it was repeatedly fighting around the 365-day moving average, and today it took another dive! Currently, BTC has dropped to around $76,660, the 365-day moving average is about $76,929, and the upper edge of the weekly bullish support zone is around $76,719. These two lines are almost squeezed together, yet the price has fallen below them! It seems the bulls are facing quite a bit of pressure this time.
We really can't be blindly optimistic right now. The key point to watch next is whether it can quickly reclaim $77,000. If it fails to hold above that for a long time, the 50-week moving average near $75,600 will likely be tested again. Of course, the daily candle hasn't closed yet, so it's still too early to draw conclusions.
Brothers, keep observing and patiently wait for the market to give us the answer!$BTC Bearish: IBIT outflow of $405 million in a single day, the largest since June
US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $399 million on Monday, marking the second consecutive day of outflows, totaling about $1.04 billion over two trading days (Farside, Bloomberg)
The majority is with BlackRock's IBIT, which redeemed $405 million in one day, while Fidelity's FBTC saw a slight inflow of $6.7 million
IBIT was the main source of subscriptions in October, supporting previous rebounds; this channel turning into net redemptions means the spot market loses its most stable support
BTC is currently at $77,589.9, up 0.74% in 24 hours, with a low of $76,386; the price hasn't dropped much, but institutional money is flowing out
Meanwhile, ETH ETFs have seen net outflows for six consecutive trading days, and after Binance's reopening, customer net withdrawals reached $4.72 billion, indicating overall tight liquidity.$SNDK SanDisk surged to 1153 before pulling back to 1117. This contract's move seems to have ended early. The semiconductor sector opened extremely strong in the US market. SanDisk previously closed at 1075, climbed to an intraday high of 1153, gaining nearly 7% at one point, and has now retraced to 1117, still up 3.9%. But the OKX SNDK contract already showed signs of cooling after the 10 PM hourly candle. Volume surged to 205,000 contracts when price touched 1155.8, slightly above the underlyBinance recorded a $1.6 billion inflow today. $BNB
Meanwhile, just two days ago, shortly after Binance reopened the withdrawal function, users withdrew nearly $8 billion.
After demonstrating huge liquidity and processing a large number of user withdrawals, perhaps people's confidence is gradually being restored.
They began to feel reassured and started transferring money back to the exchange. Famous rollover trader AguilaTrades just deposited 450,000 USDC as margin and opened a BTC short position worth 9.35 million USD on Hyperliquid, with an opening price of 77,429 USD and a liquidation price of 81,464 USD. Data shows that since June last year, AguilaTrades has accumulated a loss of about 38.2 million USD in rollover trading on Hyperliquid. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC 💥 11 accounts liquidated in 24 hours, is 0x4b62 flipping short again to gamble?
In the past day or so, at least 11 accounts in the entire market have been liquidated with single-account liquidation amounts exceeding $1 million, totaling about $30,459,300, with realized losses of about $2,135,600; among them, long positions account for 84.76%, about $25,818,600. 😮
The largest account, 0x4b62, has been liquidated for a total of about $11,493,000: initially short positions were partially liquidated, then flipped long, but got liquidated twice on long positions early this morning, and now flipped short again, still holding about $10,010,000 in BTC short positions. At the time of writing, BTC is around 76,800, ETH around 2,254. 📉
Will this short position hold or get slapped again? I lean towards the latter. The reason is simple: flipping million-dollar positions back and forth between short and long is not small leverage trial and error, but being driven by volatility. Just after being liquidated on longs, immediately flipping to short shows strong emotional traces; with BTC near 76,800, if it continues to surge, the $10,010,000 short position can easily trigger liquidation again. If BTC falls back, it might hold temporarily, but judging by this account’s repeated liquidations, the probability of getting taught by volatility again in the short term is high. 😅
In short: it’s not that short positions have no chance, but this flip-flop strategy loses to volatility first. ⚠️The U.S. midterm elections are entering the result confirmation stage, but for investors, what truly matters is not which party wins more seats, but how the election results will change the U.S. fiscal policy, regulatory direction, and market confidence in the dollar over the next two years. An easily overlooked phenomenon is that as political uncertainty rises, gold and Bitcoin do not necessarily rise in sync. Gold behaves more like trading macro risk, while BTC trades both macro liquidity and crypto regulatory expectations. The core variable for gold has always been the real interest rate, not the election itself. If Congress is divided, fiscal budgets, debt ceilings, and government appropriations may face more political bargaining, and market concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability could provide safe-haven demand for gold. But this does not mean a divided Congress necessarily benefits gold: if fiscal spending is constrained, inflation expectations fall, or U.S. Treasury real yields continue to rise, gold could also come under pressure. The World Gold Council's analysis on October 22 also pointed out that gold's reaction to the midterm elections ultimately depends on the economic, fiscal, and monetary policies actually formed after the election, not the voting results themselves. Research from the Chicago Fed found that long-term real interest rates and the degree of pessimism about economic prospects are important factors affecting gold prices. Therefore, judging gold's direction by the 10-year TIPS real yield and the dollar index is more valuable than simply guessing which party will win. The special aspect of BTC is that it has an additional layer of U.S. regulatory pricing. By 2026, the crypto industry has already invested about 1.7 in over 100 midterm elections ZEC is currently trading around $1,130 to $1,180, having broken below the $1,200 to $1,300 support zone, dropping more than 10% in 24 hours, with a low of $1,121.6. The short-term structure is clearly weakening: both the 1-hour and 4-hour trends are bearish, with trading participation only 0.03 times, and the rebound lacks capital support. The core conflict in the news is the direct clash between the NU7 upgrade and capital outflows. The upgrade is scheduled for November 5, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, and increasing Orchard throughput from 2.9 transactions/second to 6.6 transactions/second, marking the most substantial protocol improvement for ZEC in recent years. However, ETFs are withdrawing: Grayscale ZCSH has continuous net outflows, about $93.56 million in a single week, with assets under management dropping from nearly $980 million to $751 million. This round of adjustment reflects real capital withdrawal. Whales are also divided: some addresses bought 3,052 spot coins and leveraged 2x to long 8,000 coins, with a total exposure close to $14 million betting on the upgrade; but some early holders sold 25,000 coins near $1,514, taking profits of about $27 million and exiting. Controversy over community funding also triggered a major holder to announce a full exit, causing the holding structure to loosen on the eve of the upgrade. The daily close at $1,121.6 is a more honest indicator than the NU7 narrative. The upgrade provides infrastructure conditions, not demand itself; ETFs are bleeding, whales are betting, and the volatility of "buy the rumor, sell the fact" is very likely to amplify before and after the upgrade.The U.S. midterm elections have entered the result announcement phase, but for the crypto market, what really matters is not which party wins more seats, but who will control the legislative agenda and regulatory oversight for the next two years. The crypto industry has indeed invested heavily this time. According to a Reuters report on October 27, the industry invested about $176 million in this round of midterm elections, covering more than 100 congressional races. Fairshake and its affiliated organizations are the main financial forces. Behind this money reflects the industry's long-term strategy: to support members of Congress who can promote digital asset legislation and support regulatory clarity. Why might ETH be more sensitive to this election? Because ETH involves complex businesses such as staking, DeFi, and tokenized assets, regulatory boundaries directly affect the compliance costs for institutional participation. The market is looking forward to the CLARITY Act clarifying the regulatory division between the SEC and CFTC, but it must be noted that even if the regulatory environment for ETH improves, it does not mean all related businesses automatically receive exemptions, nor can it be simply understood that the law has recognized ETH as not a security. There is another key detail: previously, during the period when the Republicans controlled Congress, the CLARITY Act was still blocked in the Senate procedural vote by 49 to 50, falling short of the 60 votes needed to advance. This shows that crypto legislation requires bipartisan support, not just relying on the seat advantage of one party. My judgment is that BTC is more easily influenced by global liquidity, ETF funds, and macro risk appetite; ETH may be more sensitive to changes in U.S. regulatory rules.Bitcoin is stuck at 77K, but what’s really shifting is the sentiment, not the price. The sideways movement you see— is it a shakeout or is everyone quietly retreating? Watching the market these past couple of days gives a very subtle feeling: the price hasn’t dropped much, but the tension in the air has thickened. BTC is repeatedly testing the 77K level, as if defending a psychological line, but the external pressure is no longer quiet. Oil prices have surged above $98 due to the Iran situation and election day uncertainties; this macro-level unease will first hit risk appetite and then gradually transmit to the crypto space. More worth watching are two signals on the capital side: reportedly nearly $400 million outflow from spot BTC ETFs, and Binance reportedly withdrew nearly $5 billion following a record-level hack incident. Looking at the numbers alone suggests panic, but connecting the dots, it’s the same story—holders are repricing their "sense of security." ETF outflows indicate some institutional position reductions, while large withdrawals from exchanges seem more like a trust-level stress response rather than purely bearish bets. This brings up an easily overlooked point: the market is not currently trading on "whether BTC will break below 77K," but rather "how many people are still willing to hold positions amid uncertainty." In a sentiment contraction phase, altcoins usually bleed first; ETH’s relative resilience is used as a gauge of risk appetite temperature, while BTC plays the role of the last emotional defense line. The bullish path is: 77K holds, oil prices fall back, ETF outflows slow, risk appetite expands again, and oversold sectors begin to recover. The bearish risk is: macro noise intensifies, withdrawal waves evolve into a broader trust discount, and the longer 77K holds, the more... #Triển vọng báo cáo tài chính AMD: Commercialization progress of the HeliosAI system AMD reports Q3 on 11/3 The new Helios deliveries started in September, so Q3 contribution is quite small, significant growth begins from Q4. The decisive point is the Q4 forecast: around 16.2 billion USD or more is good, around 15 billion indicates Helios might slip to 2027. The line that broke yesterday has been reclaimed today
ZEC is currently at 1,213.48, up 4.33% in 24 hours.
Yesterday it broke below 1,210, but today it bounced back all the way from the 24-hour low of 1,120.03, reclaiming 1,210 and not far from the high of 1,229.63.
At the same time, BTC is at 77,628, up 0.83%, ETH at 2,294, up 1.86%. The market is rising overall, but this rebound in ZEC tells the most story: it recovered the break the day after, indicating yesterday's break was not far-reaching.
However, recovery does not equal strength: standing above 1,210 is just the first step; the high of 1,229.63 above has not been broken yet, and chasing near the high can easily lead to a pullback.
Wait and watch, don’t chase: breaking above 1,229.63 means turning strong; falling back below 1,210 invalidates this recovery.
After this recovery on the second day, will you wait for a breakout or watch first?
$ZEC
#ZEC #Recovery A friend told me that historically, after the midterm elections, $BTC always declines.
This period is not suitable for leveraging or trading contracts.
Well, let's look at the price performance of $BTC in November of 2014, 2018, and 2022.
2014:
First, looking at 2014, in Figure 1, you can see that the 200-day moving average on the daily chart is still downward, and the price is still completely suppressed by the 200-day moving average.
Moreover, the price hasn't even broken through the downtrend line.
What does this have to do with the midterm elections? Isn't this still during a bear market?
2018:
In Figure 2, 2018 saw the sharpest decline, but the market performance was exactly the same as in 2014, with no signs of a bull market, it was all bear market.
How could it rise?
2022:
How is this different from the previous two?
Where is the price? Where is the yearly moving average? Where is the downtrend line?
2026:
Do you see what's different?
Where is the price? Where is the yearly moving average? Where is the downtrend line?
The price has broken through the trend line and quickly stood above the yearly moving average.
A completely different trend. It's like carving a mark on a boat to find a sword; the boat is no longer the same, so what's the use of carving?
So you tell me, now that the $BTC price has returned to the yearly moving average, will you act???$SUI is showing recovery momentum after bouncing from 0.8595, with strong hourly buying volume pushing price back toward 0.90.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 0.900–0.905
Bullish breakout: 1H candle close above 0.905
Upside Target 1: 0.920
Support: 0.886
Downside Target: 0.860🚨The bull isn't dead, but it's still at the ICU door!
$BTC
Rebounded near 77,000, but the rise is weak
Repeated pressure at the 78,000 level
If it falls below 76,300, it will weaken again
$ETH
Fluctuating near 2,280
2,300 is a key resistance
$SOL
Dropped near 90
The weak pattern hasn't reversed
📉News
US BTC spot ETF outflows for two consecutive days
On November 2, a single-day outflow of 399 million USD
Capital retreat + midterm election uncertainty
Market sentiment is cautious
Friday's non-farm payrolls, another catalyst for new volatility
Key points
Rebound ≠ reversal
A bull market isn't declared by shouting
Watch three signals
BTC recovers 78,000
ETH holds above 2,300
SOL holds 90
Trend not confirmed
Don't rush to call the bull market back!
⚠️Be sure to set stop-loss orders on your positions
If this review is helpful, please like!
Press 1 if it stabilizes and strengthens, press 2 if it continues to dip
This is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Brother 800 really caught the bottom of $SOXL this time! 😭😭 It wasn’t easy at all! This time, you really won, dog dealer 😭 After breaking even, Brother 800 will never touch contracts again. This one semiconductor alone made Brother 800 go from a 10 million loss down to 5 million now, nearly halved!
SOXL current price is 71.42. After hitting a low of 67.66 in this wave, it started a slight rebound. Brother 800 positioned long near 69.8, targeting directly 120, betting this round is a phase bottom.
From the chip distribution perspective, it was smashed down continuously from 109 with heavy volume selling, clearing out many longs, and panic sentiment was fully released. The storage sector $SKHY $SNDK previously crashed simultaneously, now no longer making new lows, showing signs of resonance and stabilization with SOXL.
Previously holding big profits at high levels, a pullback returned those profits. Now afraid of losses, no reckless adding positions, only testing longs at low levels. This position belongs to a bottom after full realization of negative factors.
This is a tactical phase bottom, not a trend reversal bottom. The first resistance above is 74.69; if it can’t break through here, a second dip could happen anytime. SOXL with triple leverage is extremely volatile; even at the bottom, grinding and oscillation will repeatedly spike and shake out holders, making holding mentality very tough.
Negative factors have been fully hammered through, the sector has dropped into oversold territory, and funds are trying to catch here, betting on subsequent macro and earnings expectations warming up to pull a repair rally #AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 $CORE Bithumb is also going to kick CORE out, ending trading directly next month.
The entire network's single-day DEX trading volume is only $148, with a daily turnover ratio worse than a ghost town. The coins that were oversupplied due to previous vulnerabilities haven't been recovered, mainstream exchanges have been gradually closing deposits and withdrawals, and now the Korean platform is delivering the final blow. There is basically no buying support in this market. Even if some holders want to exit, they can't even find enough buyers to place orders. This is not a market shakeout; liquidity has been completely drained.
#CORE
$CORE
👇The last round hit all three directions, and this round's review also hit all. XRP went from 1.2809 to 1.2833, +0.14% profit, with take profit at 1.3061 and stop loss at 1.2696 untouched; HYPE went from 85.73 to 85.86, +0.15% profit; TRX went from 0.3225 to 0.3234, +0.28% profit. Three battles, three hits, 100% accuracy. No position was reduced, reasons are written below. First, about the market, don't be intimidated by the phrase "the largest theft in history." The $6.3 billion bomb from the last round was swallowed by the market in three days: the platform used its own reserves to cover about 95% of the hole, withdrawal channels reopened, and on the first day of the event, net outflow was $3.64 billion—less than 4% of its total holdings. Bitcoin was bought back from a six-week low of 76,300 to above 77,700. Here's a counterintuitive point: in October, spot products had a net outflow of $516 million, and on November 2 alone, another $399 million flowed out; money was moving out, but prices did not drop. Sellers were really selling, and buyers were really buying. After the trust crisis in November 2022, the market first fell for two weeks, then stayed flat for three months; this time, the selling pressure was absorbed on the same day, with only a lower shadow left at 76,300. Political strategists calculate this way: the US midterm elections are voting these days, and the options market quotes a volatility of 43.5% for November 4 expiration, which is 7 points higher than later expirations—this is insurance for election night, not pricing a trend. If the Democrats winThe "rebound day" for Meme coins, is this it? (╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻
The promised rebound day, but DOGE and PEPE teamed up to teach me a lesson: what it means to "be a stone during a rebound"
$DOGE is still hovering around 0.075, RSI 34, the 7-day moving average at 0.0773 pressing down, current price close to the 30-day closing low of 0.07567 with only 1.8% distance. A net outflow of $538,000 this month, this isn’t ballast, it’s a ballast iron block. Who said it was the meme leader before? When the leader dumps, it really leads, but when it rebounds, it just stays still.
$PEPE is even more frustrating. After the hacker incident dumped it, early weekend whales bought strongly for a rebound, Sun’s related positions still hold 2.8% of supply and keep hyping it, I thought it could be tough today— but this? (｡•́︿•̀｡) Luckily the volume is only 15% of the 7-day average, last week’s 13.7% gain still cushions the profit, otherwise I’d be really mad.
$TRUMP never disappoints— up 10% yesterday, down more than half today, pure speculative pump confirmed, I suspect it’s the Trump team dumping themselves 🔨 The 30-day bottom at 1.57 is the last line, breaking it means a new low. Volatility will increase before the election vote count on the 3rd, what else can this project do besides dumping?
Conclusion: As long as you don’t have faith in meme coins, they will never disappoint you (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧ TRUMP pure dump, DOGE playing dead, PEPE a fake move— today’s rebound day, meeting adjourned! 💸$XRP
Large long positions of XRP on Hyperliquid, nearly 80% concentrated in the same wallet: 35.03 million tokens, $44.05 million.
My first reaction was danger. After calculation, the liquidation price is 0.9626, still 25% away from the current price, a patience order with 4x leverage, not a gambler.
On OKX, XRP perpetual positions are only $105 million, the pool is not deep. Eighty percent is pressed on one person's position, this is not consensus, it's a single point.
What really concerns me is the volume. At 20:00, there was a single 470,000 contract candle, the previous one was only 87,000, price pulled from 1.2574 to 1.2816. Then 160,000, 106,000, 63,000, 48,000, at 02:00 only 26,000, shrinking by 94%.
Yet the price still hangs at 1.283. Now it's not that someone is buying, it's that no one is selling.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #Anthropic营收暴增1127%，能否支撑IPO高估值？ US Treasury yields remain high and stable, creating a clear divergence in internal fund allocation among risk assets.
The continuous absorption of funds by the US dollar's risk-free yield has prevented ETH from holding buyers at the 3000 and 2500 levels, pushing it steadily closer to 2000. Its correlation with BTC and the Nasdaq is just that—a correlation—and cannot be directly interpreted as a unidirectional interest rate suppression trend. In the market, those who can consistently secure returns always follow the 20/80 distribution.
The pace of institutional fund withdrawal differs between BTC and ETH; ETH is more sensitive to liquidity easing and only has a better chance of seeing capital inflows if US Treasury yields continue to decline. This judgment will become invalid if CPI data rises again and rate hike expectations reignite.
Open your position list, check the preset stop-loss level for this long position, and confirm that the pending order has enough tolerance space from the current price.
$ETH $BTC $SOL Today is the U.S. midterm election, and many people are itching to bet on a direction to ride the volatility. As someone who has played cards for years, my advice is the opposite: during weeks packed with such events, top players don't raise their bets, they reduce them.
Count the events this week—today's election, AMD's earnings tonight, possible geopolitical moves on Wednesday, and the non-farm payroll on Friday. Four or five independent binary events crammed together, any one of which can break your position. The less clear the information, the smaller the pot should be controlled; this is the most basic survival rule at the card table.
Real money isn't made at the moment of the event; it's made when you have a clear edge, not when you're flipping a coin. If you can't see clearly, don't bet big. Earnings Report Reveal Night: $AMD, $CRCL, Apple — Who Is the Most at Risk Under High Expectations?📉
The real test of earnings season isn’t whether companies "beat or miss expectations," but whether the stock price has already priced in the good news in advance😅. AMD, CRCL, and Apple stand respectively in the AI computing power, stablecoin finance, and consumer tech sectors, each facing different challenges.
First, look at AMD🔥. The market is focused on data center growth, AI chip deliveries, gross margin, and next quarter guidance. AI demand has plenty of stories but lacks the speed of converting orders into revenue; as long as guidance isn’t aggressive enough, the valuation might take a hit first.
Next, consider CRCL💵. The key isn’t that the "stablecoin space is large," but the circulation scale of USDC, reserve income, distribution costs, and profit margins. Activity in the crypto space can boost usage, but interest rate cuts may compress reserve income, so growth in scale doesn’t necessarily mean shareholder returns grow in tandem.
Apple🍎 has already reported; next, we watch iPhone demand, service revenue, gross margin, and whether AI investments can support the valuation. A strong earnings report is just the first hurdle; holding the stock price is the second.
My biggest concern about "winning on earnings but losing on stock price" is Apple: expectations are highest, valuation is not low, and the AI narrative is unfolding slowly😬. AMD is next, while CRCL has more flexibility but a more complex profit chain. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 A reminder for those obsessed with the "rate cut bull": not all central banks are on your side.
Last night, ECB's Nagel kept sending signals — September inflation pressure is higher than expected and approaching an adverse scenario; if energy prices get out of control, it will trigger widespread inflation, and a rate hike in December is very likely. On one hand, US Treasuries are racing ahead with rate cut expectations, pushing yields down; on the other hand, Europe is seriously discussing rate hikes. This policy divergence itself is noise that risk assets dislike the most.
What's even more critical is that the term "energy inflation" hasn't been crossed out yet. As long as it remains on the table, the so-called script of continuous rate cuts and massive liquidity flooding isn't as solid as everyone thinks. Don't mistake the first rate cut as the starting gun for a bull market. The Middle East card might really be played this week: The US military plans to strike Iran as early as Wednesday, right after the midterm elections. There are already three aircraft carriers deployed in the Middle East, and the window is very short, with one having to return to port after the beginning of the month.
My cold water to pour is—if it really breaks out, don’t reflexively buy $BTC as a safe haven. Retail investors’ muscle memory tightens and they want to buy safe-haven assets, but the market in recent years has torn up that textbook: it’s not digital gold, it’s a high-beta cousin of Nasdaq. When risk sentiment contracts, it’s the first to get hit, not where funds flee to.
If you really want to hedge risk, focus on US Treasuries and gold. Geopolitical events are risk events, not reasons to increase positions.$UNI UNI is ridiculously strong at the 6.8 level.
The spot gap left by the hacker's dump forces the victims to rigidly buy back, effectively turning them into the biggest obvious long positions on the chart.
With nearly $40 million hole right there, the bears can't push the price down despite their efforts; all sell orders at the bottom are completely eaten up.
The chips are all scattered, and the bears stubbornly hold at this level, always at risk of being blasted off by this rigid demand buying.
#UNI
$UNI
👇AMD is releasing its earnings report after the market closes tonight, marking the first real reveal in the AI sector this week. A quick reminder: don't treat earnings night as a directional bet. Good numbers don't necessarily mean a rise, and a single negative guidance comment can drag down the entire chip sector.
I've always said, what's going to collapse this round isn't profits, but the financing chain and valuations. No matter how solid the fundamentals are, even with memory shortages forecasted until 2028, stock prices have already peaked ahead of profits. This is a classic late-stage bubble move—good news is fully priced in, bad news gets amplified.
The chip sector is a lever that will shake tonight, and high-beta risk assets like $BTC often wobble first. I'd rather take a light position to watch the earnings than go all-in pre-market betting on direction. What I fear most on the operating table is the sudden silence of the monitor, but even more so its noise—ventricular premature beats are not the cause, the real danger is the rupturing plaque in the coronary artery. The macro data before us is the market's coronary angiography. The crash is just the monitor alarm; what I need to find is which end of the hemodynamic perfusion pressure is failing; emotional treatment never saves myocardium.
The manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5 in October, above the expected 54.7, superficially like a temporary increase in cardiac output; but the price sub-index remains high at 75.2, the inflammation indicator has not subsided. The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.75% to 4.00%, this is not a cure, more like temporarily stabilizing perfusion under extracorporeal circulation. The core personal consumption expenditure price index year-on-year in September was 3.1%, a low-grade fever that won't go away; the market assigns about a 70% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December, which is a high-probability event in the preoperative risk assessment. The October employment report will be released on November 6 at 13:30 UTC, with nonfarm payroll additions expected around 60,000 and unemployment at 4.2%, this is the next angiography determining the nature of the plaque. Good numbers don’t equal good microcirculation; increased cardiac output may just be compensatory tachycardia.
When I look at employment data, I don’t just look at surface numbers; I look at myocardial perfusion and coronary blood flow reserve. If the 60,000 increase is accompanied by sticky wages and high price sub-index, interest rate expectations will rise like afterload surging, the dollar will withdraw perfusion from risk assets, US Treasury yields will raise aortic pressure, and tokenized US stock assets like $xMETA will show arrhythmia first. If data is cold, it should not be misjudged as myocardial recovery; it may just be a blood pressure illusion caused by insufficient volume; what really matters is whether core inflation inflammation factors fall, whether financial conditions show perfusion pressure decline, and whether risk appetite returns from shock to stable rhythm.
$xMETA is not an independent heart; it shares a circulatory system with US stocks, US bonds, and the dollar. US Treasury yields are aortic pressure, the dollar is systemic vascular resistance, risk appetite is myocardial contractility; any severe fluctuation in any of these will manifest as arrhythmia in token prices. My judgment is straightforward: if this data only improves employment numbers without improving inflation inflammation, the market is just shifting from hypotension to high metabolic oxygen consumption, increasing myocardial ischemia risk; only if the price sub-index and core inflation fall synchronously can we talk about plaque stability. Currently, these vital signs show preload hanging on expectations, afterload propped by interest rates, acid-base balance not corrected; every rebound on the monitor could be reperfusion injury. The defibrillator pads are already charged. #usjobsreportinfocus A 96 percentage point year-over-year revenue increase is like a soldier already having reached the opponent's baseline; but the total new contract value only moved by six percentage points — this is not an upgrade, it's a signal that the king is pinned down.
Looking first at the white side's offensive: Palantir's Q3 revenue grew 96% year-over-year, U.S. commercial revenue surged 148%, surpassing U.S. government revenue for the first time, and the full-year guidance was raised again. In the middle game, this is called continuous initiative: capturing pieces, checking the king, forcing the king to move. Spectators can easily judge the position as advantageous. But a grandmaster not only looks at the pieces already captured but also at whether the subsequent forces can be deployed. The total contract value only increased by six points, which is the overlooked open line: revenue is the realized tactic, new signed contracts are the troop source for the next round. If the troop source can't keep up, today's impressive captures may become isolated pieces tomorrow.
More crucial is the pre-match pricing. Since July, the stock price has risen 55 points, meaning the opponent has already factored your winning odds into the opening odds. High expectations are not a moat but a handicap: every move must be precise. A 96% growth rate only maintains the position and is insufficient to checkmate valuation concerns. The market is now focusing not on the revenue line but on whether growth can transmit from signed revenue to new contracts; once this transmission chain stalls, the king on the open line will be exposed. In my notation book, the most dangerous position is never the opponent's strong attack but when you think you've already won while only one rook remains undeployed in the rear.
Next, consider $xLLY, this tokenized U.S. stock piece. Its linkage is not a straight rook but more like a knight moving in an L-shape: the underlying stock sentiment, pre-market odds, token premium, and liquidity discount all constrain each other. The underlying stock surges due to high expectations, and the token side often amplifies optimism first; but once the total contract value dark line is repriced, the premium contraction will be steeper than the stock pullback. The endgame here doesn't depend on who shouts louder but on who can maintain the exchange order on the differently colored squares. Position management is the same game: the rear cannot advance alone, the troop chain must not break, and the take-profit line must be drawn in advance like a sacrifice line; only when the market converts high expectations into new signed contracts can true force coordination occur.
The real checkmate is not on the revenue line but on the nearly unmoved horizontal line of new signed contracts; whoever takes 96 as a winning position hasn't seen that their king still hangs on the open line. #PalantirQ3Growth96% 🚨 BITCOIN MAY SWEEP 70,000 DOLLARS BEFORE A STRONG RISE
$BTC may show a final liquidity sweep as the market fluctuates after the US midterm elections.
Scenario:
- 70,000–72,000 dollars → important FVG zone
- Holding 70,000–75,000 dollars → may form a bottom
- Reclaim structure → recovery to 80,000–84,000 dollars
- Surpass 87,300 dollars → heading towards 97,800 dollars
If BTC sweeps the bottom then bounces strongly, this could be a Bear Trap before a new upward phase.Early Monday snapshot: BTC 78,000 | SOL 94 | BICO 0.015 | BEAT 0.10 | PENGU 0.007 $BTC 78,145 📊 Bounced from 76,300 over the weekend, with futures up 1.5%. But volume didn't expand on the rebound, so this looks like shorts covering rather than real bottom-fishing. Whether 78,000 holds at the open depends on Asian funds following through. $SOL 94 Still hasn't reclaimed 100 after losing it. On-chain data is recovering, but price isn't following, which is the most frustrating setup: better fundameApple's quarterly report is like a newly topped-out tower: the facade is still rising, but the core's profit margin has already been cracked by the rising cost of rebar. Q4 revenue was $114.5 billion, up 12% year-over-year; the phone business was about $57.6 billion, up 17%. On paper, it looks like three more floors have been steadily added and topped out; the $2.10 earnings per share include about $0.05 from tariff refunds, which is equivalent to the net profit height propped up by temporary scaffolding—once removed, the true height of the main structure is revealed. More critically, the next quarter's revenue guidance of 7% to 10% growth is not weak, but the gross margin guidance of 45% to 46% is below expectations. Rising prices for memory chips and increased costs for smart services are squeezing the load-bearing walls from both the foundation and the electromechanical systems. In construction, the worst fear is not an unimpressive facade but structural redundancy being thinned layer by layer: revenue is the number of floors, gross margin is the cross-section of the core tube; one-time refunds are decorative lines, the cost curve is the rebar reinforcement ratio. The financial report is just the completion drawing; the cost structure is the geological survey report. The linkage of the tokenized US stock $xSNDK cannot be judged solely by the wind pressure on Apple's revenue facade; it must consider how the downward revision of profit margin guidance transmits through cash flow, valuation anchors, and risk appetite. The facade can sway with the main building's wind vibration, but once the main structure develops cost transmission cracks, even the most beautiful prefabricated components will resonate. From the construction organization perspective, Apple's revenue side still has a tower crane turning, but the cost side has already risen step by step like the price of rebar entering the site. Memory chips are embedded pipelines; smart services are building automation; any price increase is not a facade issue but requires recalculating structural load. If costs cannot be passed on to the end user, the gross margin guidance is a design change order; if relying on one-time refunds to embellish, it's like sticking a layer of stone on the load-bearing column—complete from afar, but no increase in cross-section up close. The construction quality of tokenized assets depends on three pillars: underlying asset cash flow, market-making depth, and linkage mechanisms—not just the revenue beam. Long-term scalability is not achieved by adding decorative surfaces but by simultaneously reserving core tube, electromechanical capacity, and cost pass-through ability; any gap will become rework in the next construction cycle. Apple’s building can still add floors, but each added floor requires verifying the core tube; if the market only measures floor height without checking reinforcement, linked products will sound alarms under wind load. The market treats revenue beating expectations as a topping-out ceremony, but I only see the honeycomb texture of the load-bearing wall: the downward revision of gross margin guidance is the settlement crack that should never appear before structural acceptance. #appleq4marginpressure#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
This quarter:
Market revenue expected around $780 million
Market GAAP EPS expected around $0.375
❌USDC's average circulation declined, with this quarter's average about $73 billion, lower than last quarter's approximately $77 billion, and reserve income dropped from $668 million to about $650 million
❌AI agent risk was highlighted, Mizuho warned that AI personal assistants might direct users to high-yield fiat products, potentially reducing medium- to long-term income by 10–20%, plus fierce competition, with USDT and other compliant stablecoin markets diverting funds
❌Continuous insider selling, about $25 million sold in the past three months, connected to the crypto sector; whenever coins plunge, stocks tend not to rise
❌Federal Reserve rate cuts will also cause U.S. Treasury yields to fall, dragging down reserve yields and directly reducing them, but the Fed is uncontrollable
Entry position
This is the most uncertain decision
Small positions can enter at the current price, but choose to be bullish; if the earnings report exceeds expectations, target $75
If earnings miss expectations, stop loss below $68
Revenue will most likely slightly exceed expectations, but GAAP EPS has been raised too much at once, not even meeting expectations compared to last quarter; I actually don't think it will meet expectations
Choose No
@OKX星球 @OKX中文
#OKX美股财报季 #OKX达人 #交易TradFi就来OKXOn the radar echo, three warm and moist airflows are simultaneously colliding with the same cold front—the $65.5 million buy order from Strategy, Strive's 15% annual preferred stock dividend, and Metaplanet's early repayment of $50.64 million in bonds, all squeezed into the same 48-hour window. This is not scattered precipitation; it is a frontal cyclone completing a typical "energy reorganization" over crypto assets.
First, looking at Strategy: the purchase of 811 BTC itself is just a mesoscale convective element; the real change in the pressure field comes from the $208 million preferred stock buyback. Buying back preferred stock is equivalent to cutting off low-level instability energy ahead of the cold front's passage, compressing the denominator of financing costs, and recalibrating the BTC exposure per share like a dew point rise. But note, buyback is not dissipating the cloud mass; it just moves moisture from one layer to another, the isobar of capital efficiency does not widen, it just steepens the gradient.
Strive's first use of SATS preferred stock with a 15% annual dividend is a continuous moisture transport at the edge of the subtropical high pressure—precipitation efficiency is indeed high, with 124 BTC secured, but the high dividend means evaporation also increases simultaneously. This structure runs fast when humidity is saturated; once wind shear intensifies, maintenance costs will spread rapidly like a cumulonimbus anvil. BitMine's 8,573 ETH pushes total holdings to about 6.06 million ETH, reaching a scale capable of altering local circulation, but ETH's volatility itself is an active shear line; the larger the holding, the more sensitive the net asset value per share is to the wind field. Metaplanet's early debt repayment of $50.64 million and raising the purchase budget to $212 million is the process of reestablishing the pressure gradient after the low-pressure trough empties; the debt maturity structure shortens, and the channel for funds to shift to BTC becomes more direct, but short-term repayment pressure just moves from one cloud base to another cloud top.
Placing the four on the same isobar map, the core variable is not how much was bought, but whether the "precipitation efficiency" of crypto holdings per share after financing cost and debt adjustments has been overestimated. Preferred stock dividends, dilution of equity from buybacks, and cash flow absorption from early debt repayment—these three lines are converging into a convergence zone. The linked cloud system of XAMZN tokenized assets is also in the same wind field; once the pressure ridge of US stock risk appetite retreats eastward, the dew point on the crypto side will respond first.
The sounding data has not finished transmitting, but wind shear has already appeared in the 08:00 upper air chart. When isobars narrow to this extent, the next sounding balloon will only see shear, not clear skies. #strategybuys811btc AAPL: $332.17, 24h -1.82%, range $205~$235, at the 50% percentile of the past 30 days. Watch the $228 level for gains or losses, holding steady above $210 suggests sideways movement. For reference only, not investment advice.